9.08.2011

EA claiming to make 150% a month

One of the EAs that I bought claims that it makes 150% per month. Normally, this kind of statement makes me feel very dubious. But after trading it on two of my live accounts, I changed my mind a bit.

Because it trades on 1M chart, you can't get a reliable backtest because backtesting on 1M chart is very innacurate (modeling quality is very poor). But the author says it works on a live account. So I did. I don't trust a demo account. There's no slippage or any execution problem on demo. Live trading is the only way you can find the true results.

It takes positions around the clock. In the past 14 hours, it took 30 trades and the winning rate is very high. Once it takes a loss, it tries to recover the loss by increasing the lots on the next trade. But it's not a typical martingale style of EA because such multiplying of lots is limited up to three consecutive losses. Once it finds it can't recover in three losing trades, it start over from the initial lot amount. So it's not a dead-or-alive type of EA.

It's too early to tell, but so far, it lost only one and got recovered on the next trade. On the other account, it took two consecutive losses and recovered on the next trade. The difference comes from the difference of spreads on each broker. Since this EA chases only 5 pips (stop loss is 30 pips), tighter spread is much better for this EA.

The werid thing is that the max consecutive losses is set to 2 by default, the EA multiplied the lots by 3. I don't know if it's a bug of the EA and it continues to multiply the lots forever till the account is brown up. I never know until I see more trades.

The author suggest to run this EA on $1,000 account (with 0.01 lot trading). If you test this EA on a nano account like IBFX Australia, you can start with only $100. I think the author suggests very safe setting.

Can you really make 150% per month? I don't know. I guess it's a bit exaggerated. I think making about 10 to 20% or so is realistic expectation for this EA if it worked as statad. If you start this EA with lower capital like $200 to $400, then maybe it is very possible. According to the author's blog, he started trading this one with only $70. If you start the EA with such a small amount, then yes such high percentage yeild is very possible. I personally think that you at least need $500 on a micro account or $50 to $100 on a nano account.

This is what I know by now. But I need more time to evaluate this EA. I think the way this EA trades is very interesting, but I don't know how big the drawdown would be and how risky or profitable this one is gonna be. I only know the 14 hours results.

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